The Intermediary – October 2025 - Flipbook - Page 65
L AT E R L I F E L E N D I N G
Opinion
me mortgage rates
longer. Swap markets essentially
reflect where investors think policy
rates are headed, and if that expected
path shis upward, so too do 5-year
and 10-year mortgage fixes.
For advisers, the message is clear:
fiscal choices today shape the inflation
and rate expectations that directly
influence lifetime mortgage pricing.
Bigger picture
We cannot ignore the global backdrop.
Across advanced economies, public
debt is elevated, central banks are
retreating from bond-buying, and
geopolitical uncertainty is high.
The IMF warns that these forces are
pushing up neutral long-term rates
and term premia.
In that world, any UK-specific
slippage on fiscal anchors draws a
sharper response than it might have
done in calmer times. Investors
are already demanding more
compensation for long-horizon risks,
and that makes credibility here at
home even more valuable.
What does this all mean for advisers
and clients? The message is not to
second-guess every detail of the
Budget, but to recognise the overall
signal maers. A Budget that reassures
investors can help ease downward
pressure on long-term borrowing
costs. One that raises doubts risks
pushing them higher – and quickly.
Markets can move within hours of a
fiscal statement, as we all saw in 2022.
With the Budget on the horizon,
advisers have a clear window to help
clients consider their options and,
where appropriate, secure today’s
terms. Credibility may turn out to be
the cheapest form of mortgage relief
the Chancellor has to offer. The real
test for advisers is how we translate
that into beer outcomes for the
people who rely on us. ●
