The Intermediary – July 2025 - Flipbook - Page 42
BUY-TO-LET CRISIS?
PROPERTY
PANIC
L andlo
andlords
rds should
remain calm
calm,, despite
the headlin
headlinee s
T
he UK jobs market has been
making headlines, for all
the wrong reasons. At first
glance, landlords could be
forgiven for thinking that
the outlook for the jobs
market looks bleak.
A quarter of a million
jobs have been lost since last autumn’s
Budget, according to HMRC figures.
109,000 of those jobs were lost in May
alone. Unemployment has risen to its
highest level in almost four years. The
retail and hospitality sectors have been
hit hardest and saw the sharpest falls
in employment in March and April.
For landlords, this might raise
concerns about tenants’ ability to
meet rent payments; news like that
might, understandably, spark fears
of rental arrears. A closer inspection,
however, reveals a more complex and
42
The Intermediary | February
July 20252025
layered picture – with some reasons
for landlords to avoid being overly
pessimistic, and even some causes for
cautious optimism.
From robust wage growth to
the sustained resilience of certain
sectors, landlords have grounds to
remain confident about their tenants’
continued financial stability.
Doubting the data
First, the employment data itself
warrants a bit of scrutiny. The Office
for National Statistics (ONS) has
acknowledged that its labour market
figures are not entirely reliable, due
to methodological challenges such
as declining response rates. While
the headline figures are concerning,
they may not fully reflect the reality
on the ground. Landlords might take
these statistics with a proverbial pinch
MARTIN SIMS
is distribution director at Molo
of salt and focus on some broader
economic trends.
One of those trends is the resilience
of the public sector. The free
marketeers might not approve, but the
overall size of Government in the UK
is growing, not shrinking.
In Q2 2016, there were 384,200 civil
servants. There are now 516,500, and
employment in the civil service is at
record levels. This growth reflects
increased hiring across departments
like health and education. These
plans will add to public sector
headcount growth.
The public sector’s stability provides
a buffer against the volatility seen in
the private sector, ensuring that many
tenants are secure in employment
here. The ‘lanyard classes’ are in
lile danger of being removed from
posts, and for landlords with public
